Pasta supplies under threat after poor durum wheat harvest

Eurostar Commodities said that prices for the 2021 durum wheat harvest have almost doubled on last year. This means on-shelf prices of pasta are almost certain to spiral upwards, it believes.

The crisis has been triggered by a worsening situation in major durum wheat producer Canada, where the crop forecast has been revised down by more than one-third from five million tonnes to only 3.4 million tonnes.

The market is predicting there will not be enough durum wheat to meet global demand.

Jason Bull, director at Eurostar Commodities, said: “The market is completely out of control and as a result there has been an approximately 90% increase in raw material prices as well as increases in freight.

“This is a dire situation, hitting all semolina producers and all buyers of durum wheat across the globe.

“Companies are buying at record high prices and farmers are holding on to wheat and driving the price up.

“We expect to see shortages on supermarket shelves and increasing prices, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers.

“We may also see substitutions whereby pasta will be produced with soft wheat flour rather than hard durum wheat.”

Durum wheat is the key ingredient of pasta. It is the second most cultivated species of wheat after common wheat and is ground down into semolina to make a variety of different products including pasta and macaroni.

The reasons for the shortage include extreme heat in Canada. where there has been hardly any rainfall since the crop was planted, and poor weather in Europe with lots of rain affecting quality and yield.

French wheat has also had a poor year because of excessive rain.