Grocery sales are forecast to break the £13bn barrier for the first time this December, according to Kantar.
It comes as grocery sales grew 6.3% over the four weeks to 26 November 2023 to reach £11.7bn.
Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: “The scene is set for record-breaking spend through the supermarket tills this Christmas.
“The festive period is always a bumper one for the grocers with consumers buying on average 10% more items than in a typical month. Some of the increase, of course, will also be driven by the ongoing price inflation we’ve seen this year.”
However, inflation is easing, with grocery prices up 9.1% in November.
McKevitt said: “The retailers are also battling it out to offer value to consumers during this important month for trading and are doing what they can to keep prices low.
“In a sign of just how fierce the contest is between the grocers, the cost of a Christmas dinner for four has risen well below the overall inflation rate this year at 1.3%, as some items on our festive plate have actually fallen in price.”
For example, Brussels sprouts are now 4.3% cheaper than 12 months ago.
Sainsbury’s posts biggest market share growth in a decade
Sainsbury’s delivered its strongest growth in grocery market share in more than a decade in November, rising by 0.4 percentage points to 15.6%, driven by a 10.2% boost in sales.
The last time it notched up growth at this level was March 2013, according to the data and analytics firm.
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McKevitt said its growth was driven by the success of its own-label offer, with sales of its ‘Taste the Difference’ range up by 23% year on year.
“These premium products feature prominently in Sainsbury’s Christmas TV spot this year and our testing showed its lead TV ad is one of the top performers for potential short-term sales impact,” he said.
Tesco also increased is market share to 27.5% as sales rose 8.6% over the month, marking the fifth month in a row that Britain’s largest retailer has made gains.
However, Lidl was once again the fastest-growing grocer, with sales surging 14.2% over the 12 weeks to 26 November to take a record high share of 7.8%.
Aldi sales jumped 11.1% and it now holds 9.6% of the grocery market.
However, Asda and Morrisons market share nose dived year on year. Asda’s plunged from 14% to 13.4%, while Morrisons’ share fell from 9% to 8.7%.
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