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Is Black Friday Still Relevant in 2020?

There is no doubt that retailers have faced many struggles as a result of the pandemic. Brick-and-mortar stores were forced to shutter around the country, forcing retailers to amplify their ecommerce efforts, with varying levels of success. Many struggled to adapt, resulting in a record number of bankruptcies, and in some cases complete closures, including industry stalwarts like Neiman Marcus, Lord & Taylor and J.Crew.

Even as physical stores have been able to reopen during the summer months, retailers are contending with a customer base whose habits have shifted, in many cases permanently. Some shoppers, especially those in the older demographic, made online purchases for the first time due to the pandemic and have been continuing to use ecommerce channels even as stores reopened.

The current shift towards online shopping is what we would have expected to see in 2030, meaning that the pandemic has accelerated the rise of ecommerce by a decade. This has also fueled an abundance of online data that can help retailers predict new purchasing trends and future consumer demand, which has changed course due to the realities of the pandemic.

With the pandemic surging again in many states, it’s unclear if retailers that reopened their doors during the summer months will be able to stay open as greater restrictions on businesses are popping up again across the country. This calls into question whether retailers will even be able to keep their doors open for the holiday shopping season and Black Friday. In some regions the major in-person deals and doorbusters that customers have come to expect will be impossible. In a year like no other, retailers are being forced to face major changes to the status quo yet again as Black Friday is turned on its head. They’ll need to leverage all resources available to them, including online data collection, to thrive online this holiday season.

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I believe that 2020 will be the year that Black Friday merges with Cyber Monday and permanently shifts to becoming an online event. There will be no reason to market two separate shopping days, as customers will come to expect deals throughout the entire month of November. Just as customers are changing their overall shopping preferences and habits due to the pandemic, their Black Friday expectations will change too. Once they see how much easier it is to skip the lines and do their Black Friday shopping online throughout the entire month, it will be difficult for retailers to convince them to return to stores on a specific day in the same numbers in the future.

In fact, I predict that Black Friday this year will look a lot more like what we expect it will look like in 2030, and that’s not a change that will revert back next year.

Coping With Lackluster Sales and the New Normal

As sales plunged with the initial surge of COVID-19, retailers were forced to offer steep discounts that rivaled Black Friday and Cyber Monday prices much earlier in the year. This was especially true in categories where demand was hardest hit. As the holiday season approached, many retailers continued to offer regular discounts at a much higher frequency than we’ve seen in years past. Some are even extending their Black Friday promotions by a month or more and kicking them off throughout October and November.  

This isn’t limited to the hardest hit product categories either. Even items like electronics, which have seen record online sales as people set up home offices and look for new entertainment and fitness options at home, are seeing early discounts. Electronics like televisions and gaming systems are typically reserved for in-person doorbuster deals on Black Friday but are already being discounted online this year.

It’s a complete change in the Black Friday sale norm and has expanded the traditional holiday shopping season from one month to three. These changes are being informed by a calculated assessment of the retail landscape, with companies leveraging the data available to them to determine the timing and pricing that will maximize their online sales.

Stores that do plan to open their doors on Black Friday also face a new normal. Capacity restrictions and additional cleaning protocols are forcing retailers to limit their hours, making the Thanksgiving afternoon start, which has been the de facto sale start time for several years, much less appealing. The crowds that have been prevalent in years past, as customers raced each other to capture doorbuster deals with very limited stock, will undoubtedly be absent this year as well.

In fact, several retailers are trying to avoid these scenarios entirely. Walmart, for example, is spreading its best deals across three different weekends to discourage crowds. This is assuming that customers show up in person at all, which in a year that has seen so many unexpected changes is difficult to predict. With many stores already offering their normal in-person doorbusters online, the incentive to go in-store is greatly reduced, not to mention the health risks.

The Future of Black Friday, in 2020 and Beyond: Online Data Collection to Pave the Way

There is little doubt that this year’s holiday shopping season will be different than years past. This is because many deals have already been happening for months. In fact, some retailers have been offering the steep discounts that are typically reserved for Black Friday since the spring.

To stand out among competitors that have been spreading their discounts over several months, retailers will need to frequently monitor their prices to ensure that they are the most competitive for longer periods of time. They also must make sure that they are addressing their consumer sentiments in real time.  

This will require retailers to use online data collection to drive up-to-the minute insights that will let them collate the discounts of competitors, as well as address consumers’ shifting demands with the right kind of offers and pricing strategies.

Online data also can give retailers a better understanding of what product categories are trending with shoppers. By providing a comprehensive market overview, online data provides retailers with the ability to ensure that they aren’t under- or overstocked, thereby preventing either diminished potential sales or being left with too much extra merchandise. The former would mean they couldn’t further expand their catalog of products, while the latter would lead to having to discount merchandise after the holidays.

Since this year is like no other, retailers also won’t be able to rely on data from past years and will, instead, need to gather it in real time. Moreover, they will need to frequently use multiple types of precise, relevant online data to stay ahead of the competition and drive sales. This includes using online data for SEO optimization purposes.

Ultimately, retailers will need to continue to leverage their online data-driven insights and the technology available to them for years to come in order to keep up with the new holiday shopping norms.


Or Lenchner is CEO of Luminati, a leading data collection automation platform dedicated to maintaining the openness, transparency and integrity of the online ecosystem. His career at the company has been driven by his firm belief in a transparent, ethical-by-design web environment benefitting both businesses and consumers. Prior to Luminati, Lenchner founded and managed several web-based businesses, developing digital assets and online marketing programs.

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